ABSTRACT
Objective To forecast the trend of mosquito density index in Pudong New Area, Shanghai so as to provide evidence for disease control and risk-control measures for vector-borne diseases. Methods Mosquito monitoring data was collected in Pudong New Area between 2011 and 2015 at the city-level monitoring sites for analysis on the trend of the mosquito density index in Pudong New Area of Shanghai by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). Results From 2011 to 2015, a total of 135 times labor-hour monitoring were carried out at the city-level monitoring points in Pudong New Area.The mosquito density index averaged 6.17/labor-hour with a standard deviation at 4.93, S=[0, 18]/labor-hour.Using ARIMA to analyze the change trend of mosquito density index in Pudong New Area, ARIMA(2, 0, 1)became the final fitting model, with R2=0.808.In the model, the Ljung-Box Q test value was 19.632(AR1=1.866, AR2=-0.907), and MA parameter was 0.999. Conclusion ARIMA model can be used to predict mosquito density monitoring data, but low monitoring frequency and irregular cycle length will affect the prediction results.
ABSTRACT
Objective To learn the density, distribution, population composition, and seasonal fluctuation of mosquitoes in Shanghai Pudong New Area, and to provide evidence for the mosquito-borne diseases control and prevention. Methods From 2017 to 2019, light trap method was used to monitor the mosquito density in farmyard, parks, hospitals, residential areas and the barns, three times a month from April to November. Results A total of 24 times/set light traps were set up and 7 104 mosquitoes were captured.The average density was 3.07 insects per lamp.Culex pipienspallens (81.52%) and Aedes albopictus (12.10%) were the mostly captured, followed by Armigeres subalbatus (3.24%), Culex tritaeniorhynchus (2.78%) and Anopheles sinensis (0.36%).The proportion of Culex pipienspallens was increasing year by year, and that of Aedes albopictus was decreasing year by year.The seasonal variation curve of mosquito density showed a single peak distribution, with the peak from June to July.Among the five habitat types, the mosquito density from high to low was hospital (4.68/set), farmyard (4.38/set), livestock shed (3.25/set), residential household (2.81/set) and park (1.38/set).The mosquito density in urban area, urban-rural junction and rural area was 2.69, 3.32 and 3.36 respectively (i.e., rural area > urban-rural integration > urban area). Conclusion Culex pipienspallens and Aedes albopictus are the dominant species in Pudong New Area.Parks, hospitals and residential areas are the most important mosquitoes infestation areas, therefore more attention must be paid to mosquito control in these areas.